An innovative solution for the joint estimation of extreme winds and waves
Current methods for estimating extreme winds and waves associated with tropical cyclones do not provide joint statistics. These methods are subject to significant uncertainties, particularly regarding waves. For wave parameters, they rely on statistical extrapolation based on retrospective forecasts. This leads to significant uncertainties due to the rarity of events and the short observation period.
To address these limitations, TAIFU-WindWaves© uses Monte Carlo simulations to jointly calculate the extreme winds and waves generated by tropical cyclones.
- The tool provides joint statistics, including for 500-year return periods.
- It also incorporates the contribution of extratropical weather systems into the univariate statistics.
Key features
TAIFU-WindWaves© is based on a parametric wind model developed using SAR satellite observations. This model estimates wind speed at 10 metres above sea level. It also incorporates a vertical extrapolation, enabling the estimation of wind speed at hub height. It is coupled with two wave models: one derived from the literature, the other specifically developed and refined as part of the OROWSHI project. The system is applied to the synthetic tracks in the STORM database. This enables the simulation of wind and wave fields associated with tropical cyclones.
- Joint wind-wave statistics induced by tropical cyclones
- Consideration of the underlying swell in statistics on significant wave height (Hs)
- Implementation of the contribution of extratropical cyclones
Use cases
The TAIFU-WindWaves© tool addresses a number of strategic requirements relating to the system lifecycle.
Design phase
TAIFU-WindWaves© helps to reduce the uncertainties associated with estimates of extreme wind and wave conditions: input parameters for the DLCs, including return period values for Hs and U10min-h150 at 50- and 500-year intervals.
Development phase
TAIFU-WindWaves© contributes to risk analysis, with the aim of identifying factors that may influence the design and performance of systems.
Operation phase
TAIFU-WindWaves© enables the estimation of environmental conditions caused by an actual cyclone. This data is used to assess system fatigue. It also enables the updating of estimates of their service life.
Analysis of extreme winds at onshore sites
TAIFU-WindWaves© also enables the analysis of extreme winds at onshore sites. This is achieved through the integration of the Ishihara & Yamaguchi wind model and the inclusion of a correction factor to account for topographical effects upstream.
The benefits of our support
For the past 10 years, we have been conducting research projects focused on characterising extreme winds and waves. This expertise enables us to generate realistic scenarios, significantly reducing the risk associated with estimates based on conventional approaches.
Our experience to support you
We have in-depth expertise in identifying and managing model limitations. As such, we have a thorough understanding of the impact of bathymetry on waves and the influence of fine-scale topography on wind. This expertise enables us to effectively support our clients in interpreting and utilising the results.
Customer benefits
TAIFU-WindWaves© enables the generation of ready-to-use extreme conditions for engineering purposes.
The tool generates:
- joint return period values (50-year, 500-year, etc.)
- complete extreme meteocean conditions for load simulations.
The benefits of our solution
- Our solution enables the generation of combined wind-wave statistics using Monte Carlo simulations, whereas other solutions are limited to wind alone.
- Our offering stands out for its flexibility and adaptability. TAIFU-WindWaves© can be applied globally, whereas other solutions are limited to a single region.
Our range of related services
We offer a bespoke range of services:
Full implementation of the TAIFU WindWaves© tool by France Energies Marines
- Generation of site-specific extreme wind and wave conditions
- Cyclone-wind-wave coupling and estimation of joint extreme statistics
- Calculation of the speed-up ratio using OpenFOAM
- Extraction of ERA5 data
- Conducting WAVEWATCH III simulations
Detailed technical deliverables
- Detailed technical reports
- Data sets ready for integration into calculation tools
- Summary files for engineering and insurance purposes
- Recommendations for use in structural design
Technical support and guidance
- Software training and output analysis sessions
- Support with data integration
