PhD – Analogue forecasting of geophysical systems

On 11 December, Paul Platzer defended his PhD on the topic of forecasting geophysical systems using the analogue method will be held. This work was carried out within the framework of the CARAVELE project.

Video of the PhD defense

The forecasting of geophysical variables such as wind or waves is essential for the installation and maintenance activities of offshore renewable energy infrastructures, as well as for determining their operating ranges. As the variety of methods for predicting geophysical variables increases, it is necessary to understand the properties, advantages and limitations of each method. We study analogues, which have been used in meteorology for more than 60 years. The probability of finding good analogues is expressed through probability distributions of analogue distances, the analytical form of which is obtained for ergodic dynamical systems. The application to ten-metre wind data shows that the first analogue distances are very similar, which is not the case for small systems. Next, we compare the efficiency of several analogue forecasting methods, relating the forecast errors to the flow of the system. The influence of observational noise on analogue prediction is studied theoretically and numerically, justifying the use of a large number of analogues to attenuate the effect of noise.

Composition of the jury:

• Dimitris GIANNAKIS: Rapporteur – Adjunct professor, Courant Institue of Mathematical Sciences
• Julien TOUBOUL: Rapporteur – Lecturer, Institut Méditerranéen d’Océanographie
• Anne-Catherine FAVRE: Examiner – Professor, Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble
• Valérie MONBET: Examiner – Professor, Université de Rennes 1
• Thierry CHONAVEL: Thesis director – Professor, IMT Atlantique
• Jean-François FILIPOT: Thesis director – Scientific director, France Énergies Marines
• Pascal YIOU: Thesis director – Researcher, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement
• Philippe NAVEAU: Supervisor – Researcher, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement
• Pierre TANDEO: Supervisor – Lecturer, IMT Atlantique

Photo credit: Pasja1000 / Pixabay